National Economic Resilience in Asta Gatra Amid Reciprocal Trade and Global Turbulence
Abstract
Purpose: This article examines the impact of reciprocal tariff changes amidst geopolitical tensions on Indonesia's efforts to maintain market access while safeguarding its economic sovereignty. It also assesses national economic resilience through the Asta Gatra framework and evaluates the policy implications of the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) amidst global uncertainty.
Study Design/Methodology/Approach: This study adopts a structured narrative review with a descriptive approach, utilising academic publications, policy documents, official records, and relevant institutional sources. The gathered evidence is organised according to Asta Gatra dimensions and interpreted through contingency theory to assess the interrelationships between external pressures, domestic capabilities, and strategic policy choices.
Findings: The ART has the potential to expand market access, reduce tariff exposure, and support export-orientated industries. However, regulatory concessions may also increase external dependency, weaken domestic industrial capacity, and constrain national policy space. Balancing these competing interests requires a multidimensional assessment and an adaptive policy response that evolves alongside changing external conditions and national capabilities.
Originality/Value: This article integrates Asta Gatra, contingency theory, and the trigger gatra concept into a unified analytical framework. The trigger-gator concept identifies significant changes in one dimension that signal emerging pressures in another, thereby providing an early warning basis for timely policy recalibration and the strengthening of national economic resilience.
References
Constantinescu, C., Mattoo, A., & Ruta, M. (2020). Policy Uncertainty, Trade and Global Value Chains: Some Facts, Many Questions. Review of Industrial Organization, 57(2), 285–308. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-020-09772-0
A’yun, I. Q. (2020). Asean-Canada Free Trade Agreement: Potential Economic for Asean Member Countries. Optimum Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan, 10(1), 1. https://doi.org/10.12928/optimum.v10i1.16079
Anbumozhi, V., & Kalirajan, K. (2021). Building Innovative, Inclusive and Resilient Global Value Chains. Journal of Social and Economic Development, 23(S3), 439–446. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40847-021-00170-0
Floristella, A. P. di, & Chen, X. (2022). Building Resilient Supply Chains in Uncertain Times: A Comparative Study of EU and ASEAN Approaches to Supply Chain Resilience. Asia Europe Journal, 20(4), 457–475. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10308-022-00652-8
Handley, K., & Limão, N. (2022). Trade Policy Uncertainty. Annual Review of Economics, 14(1), 363–395. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-021622-020416
He, D., Tang, Y., Wang, L., & Mohsin, M. (2023). Can Increasing Technological Complexity Help Strengthen Regional Economic Resilience? Economic Change and Restructuring, 56(6), 4043–4070. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-023-09506-8
Hendrawan, S., & Setiyono, J. (2026). Dynamics of the Indonesia-United States Reciprocal Trade Agreement (Agreement on Reciprocal Trade/Art) Toward National Industry. International Journal of Social Science and Human Research, 9(5). https://doi.org/10.47191/ijsshr/v9-i5-87
Jodlbauer, H., Brunner, M., Bachmann, N., Tripathi, S., & Thürer, M. (2023). Supply Chain Management: A Structured Narrative Review of Current Challenges and Recommendations for Action. Logistics, 7(4), 70. https://doi.org/10.3390/logistics7040070
Judijanto, L. (2025). Recalibrating Reciprocity: Strategic Implications of the 2025 Indonesia-United States Reciprocal Trade Agreement for Economic Sovereignty and National Resilience. European Journal of Management Economics and Business, 2(6), 242–257. https://doi.org/10.59324/ejmeb.2025.2(6).18
Miles, J. A. (2012). Management and Organization Theory: A Jossey-Bass Reader. John Wiley & Sons.
Miroudot, S. (2020). Reshaping the Policy Debate on the Implications of COVID-19 for Global Supply Chains. Journal of International Business Policy, 3(4), 430–442. https://doi.org/10.1057/s42214-020-00074-6
Copyright (c) 2025 Adiandari, A.M. Fitriandari, M. (Translator)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
